A renewed but contained trade war could cost global trade growth 0.6pp in 2026, while a full-blown trade war would cost up to 2.4pps. In his second term as President, Donald Trump is likely to increase tariffs on Chinese and other strategic imports (to 25% for the former and to 5% for the rest of the world, excluding Mexico and Canada), which would decrease global trade by -0.6pp in 2026 as most measures would kick-in from the second half of 2025.
