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Is the ECB past the peak or just on pause?

The invasion of Ukraine has created a significant negative supply-side shock to the Eurozone. Inflation continues to rise while financial sanctions have effectively shut down non-energy trade with Russia. 

#IWD2022 : Break the Gender Pay Gap!

The unadjusted gender pay gap is a snapshot that shows the average differences in pay between all men and all women in the workforce. It stands at 15% in the EU. Reflecting mostly lower participation rates and shorter working lives, the unadjusted gender pension gap is more than twice as high.       

The (energy) price of war for European households

The invasion of Ukraine will propel Europe's already high energy prices even higher: We expect at least +30% increase in the energy bill for 2022, hitting low-income households in the UK and Germany the hardest. 

Can Europe do without Russian gas?

Giving up gas imports from Russia, which account for 36% of total EU gas supply, will not be easy for Europe. We estimate the amount of energy at risk across the EU at almost 10% of final consumption. 

Russia-Ukraine crisis: conflict escalation

The escalation of the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine is likely to have important economic and financial consequences through three main transmission channels — energy, trade, and the financial sector — depending how current and future sanctions will play out. 

Is the wealth middle class shrinking?

Is the middle class shrinking? The data suggest a heterogeneous picture, but genuine success stories are rare: In most countries, the situation of the middle class has deteriorated, especially with regard to its share of total wealth. 

Who´s afraid of inflation? A corporate view

Strong cash balances (EUR690bn above pre-crisis levels in the Eurozone and more than USD765bn in the US), as well as rising profitability and capex, are cushioning most US and Eurozone companies from high input prices.

Carbon farming: A transition path for agriculture & forestry

Carbon Farming is central in the EU strategy for capturing CO2 from the atmosphere and store it in natural sinks like forests or agricultural land. Yet to comply with the 1.5°C goal, the EU needs total investments of EUR185bn and an annual investment gap of EUR8.3bn needs to be filled.

China: Putting the tiger on a stronger footing in 2022

The Chinese economy is experiencing a difficult start to 2022, driven by renewed Covid-19 outbreaks. Even if the sanitary context eases, private consumption is likely to remain below the pre-pandemic trend level in 2022.

The flailing domestic leg should be supported by further policy rate cuts, public investment in infrastructure and temporarily laxer regulation. The external leg should remain robust. All this should bring the Chinese economy to a stronger footing in H2 2022. Beyond that, achieving “common prosperity” could imply a volatile medium-term growth pattern, depending on how policies are implemented and communicated.

Can 5G reignite the smartphone industry?

The rollout of 5G won’t be enough to kickstart a new era of “peak smartphone” in North America and Western Europe. China’s experience shows that users appreciate 5G, but will not rush for it.