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Dec 03, 2021

Monetary policy: Omicron management & beyond

In their December policy meetings, the US Federal Reserve and the ECB will be tested on their monetary policy stance amid signs of higher inflation and rising omicron-related uncertainty. Despite the higher stakes for credible forward guidance, with the possbility of a slightly more hawkish tone, we still expect the overall tightening cycle to be less aggressive than suggested by current market pricing.

Dec 01, 2021

Global FX Volatility: Still waters run deep

Global foreign exchange implied volatility has declined to a historically low level, led by advanced economies currencies (notably the EUR and the JPY). Central banks’ liquidity swaps have fostered such a decline by providing USD liquidity in times of stress. The presence of a CNY-factor in non-CNY denominated assets creates “hidden” opportunities as well as “hidden” risks.

Nov 25, 2021

Chinese capital markets: the panda in the room

China’s rapid economic development and dominant role in global trade has spurred a rapidly evolving financial system with an increasingly diverse and accessible capital market. 

Nov 22, 2021

US retail: A not so Black Friday for consumers

American consumers hunting for Black Friday bargains won’t find much in 2021 as supply remains tight, inventory low and discounts will apply to goods already more expensive. In fact, we expect consumers to pay between +5-17% more for toys, apparel, appliances, furniture, computers, sporting goods and TV sets compared to 2020.

Nov 18, 2021

Corporate credit: Life after policy support

Strong crisis support from central banks has triggered substantial inflows into corporate credit, keeping spreads anchored close to multi-year lows. But will a world without QE reverse the trend?

Nov 17, 2021

The middle-income trap: inequality across countries after Covid-19

In 2020, Covid-19 narrowed the prosperity gap between rich and poor countries as the former were at first the most affected. But over the medium and long run, its consequences could hit emerging markets harder. 

Nov 12, 2021

Diabetes and Covid-19: A silent EUR45bn problem

While the world is struggling to fight the Covid-19 pandemic, the number of people suffering from diabetes has kept increasing rather unnoticed. A further rise in the prevalence of diabetes could add 25mn people suffering from diabetes worldwide, causing a staggering EUR45bn of direct health costs per year.

Nov 10, 2021

The EU utility transformation: Powered by solar and wind

The utilities sector is a key focus area if climate neutrality is to be reached by 2050: electricity demand is increasing and will reach record highs, driven by transportation and industries where the electrification rate is projected to rise from 30% to 60% by 2030.

Nov 05, 2021

Wrapping up? How paper and board are back on track

Global paper output is expected at 416mn tons in 2022, still 4mn tons short of its 2018 level. The global paper sector withstood the slump of 2020 a little better mainly due to the increase in demand from e-commerce 

Nov 03, 2021

Transport in a zero carbon EU: Pathways and opportunities

The transportation sector, including domestic transport, international shipping and aviation, accounts for almost 30% of the EU’s annual carbon emissions. 

652 releases in total