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Oct 21, 2020

U.S., Europe or China: Who is the global climate’s superhero?

Covid-19 will upend the old pecking order in the global economy – and in climate policy. China is not only leading the economic recovery post-Covid-19 but also seems to be shifting from laggard to leader in climate policy, with President Xi Jinping’s pledge for net-zero emissions by 2060. 

 

Oct 20, 2020

A hard Brexit could cost the EU EUR33bn in annual exports

The odds for a no-deal Brexit at the end of 2020 have considerably increased to 45%. While we do still expect a last-minute compromise, given the social, political and economic consequences of such an outcome on top of the continuing Covid-19 crisis in the UK and across Europe in general, a Hard Brexit could cost as much as EUR33bn in annual exports to the EU.

 

Oct 19, 2020

China: Winning export markets share despite the Covid-19 crisis

China’s exporters have been gaining market share since they exited the Covid-19 crisis. Out of the top 20 exporters in the world, China’s total market share now stands at c.25%, compared to an average of c.20% over 2017-19.

 

Oct 15, 2020

Eurozone: Double dip and structural weaknesses

As Covid19-related restrictions are retightened, we expect key European economies to contract again in the final quarter of 2020. We forecast GDP to drop by -1.3% q/q in Spain, -1.1% q/q in France and–1.0% q/q in the Netherlands. 

 

Oct 14, 2020

EU climate policy goes global

A CBAM is a game-changer for global climate policy. The need for financing the pandemic recovery package has jump-started the process of introducing an EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

 

Oct 12, 2020

Big Tech and the S&P 500: Look beneath the surface

 

Complementary indicators point to increasing concentration in the S&P 500 market rally: A five-year-long outperformance of the (capitalization-weighted) S&P 500 relative to the equally-weighted S&P 500 and a six-month-long divergence between the (capitalization-weighted) S&P 500 and the ratio of rising-to-falling stocks as well as a fall in entropy, a better metrics of concentration within the S&P 500

 

Oct 09, 2020

The global aerospace industry faces a steep cost of contagion

Rising Covid-19 infections will hold back the recovery of passenger demand in H2 2020. This has dealt a blow to new plane deliveries, especially for wide-bodied jets.

 

 

Oct 08, 2020

EUR100bn equity gap for French and Italian SMEs

On top of emergency liquidity measures provided to European SMEs to fight Covid-19, we estimate that Italian SMEs need EUR70bn of recapitalization, French SMEs EUR30bn and German SMEs EUR3bn - after excluding pre-existing zombies.

 

Oct 06, 2020

30 million unemployed go missing

An unprecedented rise in the inactive population since February has seen more than 30 million workers going missing from official unemployment statistics across selected OECD and Emerging Market economies. Because of this” hidden unemployment,” the true monthly hit to household consumption could be underestimated by USD14bn. 

 

 

Oct 02, 2020

U.S. & Eurozone corporates: Where is the Fed?

Central banks, allegedly in the front line? As the pandemic brought large swathes of the global economy to a standstill, both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank started loading their respective policy bazookas. Both central banks’ decisions triggered an extreme market rotation into corporate credit (especially in the high yielding segment). Taking into account that the U.S. corporate credit market is ~2.5x that of the Eurozone, as of today the ECB has intervened with the double firepower compared to the Fed.

 


 

652 releases in total