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Jun 12, 2020

Equity markets: Have policymakers created Pavlovian markets?

Wall Street is responding faster and faster to counter-cyclical policies, as if it was 100% sure that past experience is a sure guide to the future. In the context of the Covid-19 crisis, the response time of the U.S. and global equity markets to the beginning of the implementation of counter-cyclical monetary and fiscal policies has indeed shrunk to zero.

Jun 09, 2020

Rough landing: 2020 will be a terrible year for air transportation

Global demand in air transport will not return to its pre-Covid-19 level before 2023. The unprecedented slump in international travel will make 2020 a terrible year for the air transportation industry.

Jun 04, 2020

Social Risk Index: Structural determinants of social risk

As the Covid-19 pandemic pushes the global economy into the worst recession since WWII, systemic social risk could become a more important factor of political risk and worsen the business climate in some countries.

Jun 04, 2020

Managing the curves: Shaping a sustainable COVID-19 recovery

The economy needs to be jump started while maintaining a flat infection curve and concurrently bending the global temperature increase to stay within the 1.5 degrees warming limit.

Jun 02, 2020

European Corporates: Loading up cash against uncertainty

At the end of H1 2020, we estimate the net savings of EU non-financial corporates, i.e. cash from operating activities, to have doubled to over EUR700bn, or more than 4.5% of GDP. 

May 28, 2020

Allianz Global Pension Report 2020: The Silver Swan

Analyzing 70 pension systems in terms of sustainability and adequacy, only a handful of countries have already made their pension system demography-proof, above all Sweden, Belgium, and Denmark.

May 25, 2020

Global trade: Recession confirmed

Q1’s strongest contraction in merchandise trade since Q1 2009 is only the first part of the story. Our proprietary Trade Momentum Index shows that Q2 is likely to see an even stronger contraction. Indeed, April could post a -13% y/y drop.

May 20, 2020

The ECB is also here to close governments´ financing gap

In response to the Covid-19 crisis, gross financing needs could amount to EUR800-900bn for the Eurozone, and only part of it will be covered by the issuance of long-term bonds. Next to state guarantees — depending on how much they translate into actual financing needs — these needs include discretionary spending (investments, tax cuts etc.), and additional expenditure on social security (automatic stabilizers). As a result, public deficits will increase.

May 19, 2020

A German-French trial balloon on fiscal union

On 18 May German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron proposed the set-up of a one-off EUR500bn strong (3.6% of 2019 EU GDP) recovery fund to help those economies hit hardest by the Covid-19 pandemic.

May 18, 2020

Retail in the U.S.: Department store bankruptcies are only the tip of the iceberg

The Covid-19 outbreak is sending the U.S. economy into an unprecedented recession: Our central scenario anticipates a -2.7% contraction of economic activity for the year 2020, taking into account a two-month lockdown period and a U-shaped recovery starting in Q3. The impact of the crisis on the U.S. retail industry is also unprecedented and will have lasting consequences on all segments. However, we find a clear divide between food retail, which is resilient, and discretionary retail, which is cyclical, at least for the eighteen months to come.

652 releases in total