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Apr 23, 2020 | Specials

Reopening the world: Beware of false starts

Black hole economics. Lockdowns for more than half of the global population and GDP have hit the world like a meteorite, pushing the global economy into its worst recession since WWII.

Apr 22, 2020 | Specials

Europe should unlock excess savings from Covid-19 response

We estimate that in Europe, household saving rates could increase by as much as +20pp to 36% on average in Q2 2020. This means EUR1.3tn of additional savings, or 10% of GDP. Total savings could peak at EUR2.3tn.

Apr 17, 2020 | Specials

China: In search of lost demand

China’s GDP growth collapsed to -6.8% y/y in Q1 2020, down from +6.0% in the previous quarter. This is the first contraction since quarterly GDP started to be published, in 1992 and worse than consensus expectations (-6.0%), though better than our forecast (-9.0%).  

Apr 17, 2020

Fed bazooka: A long shot

In the six weeks to April 15th, the Fed’s balance sheet has increased by an eye-catching USD 2.1 trillion to USD 6.3 trillion. However, there is still little evidence that this massive injection of liquidity into the financial system has managed to reach the real economy.

Apr 16, 2020 | Specials

Exiting the lockdowns: a tale of four stories

As more countries announce future end dates for lockdowns (France, the UK, Germany), already start curbing them (China, Austria and now Italy and Spain) all of them are outlining their plans to gradually restart activity. Yet one should keep in mind that not all countries are in the same boat; each faces different risks on the eve of deconfining.   

Apr 09, 2020 | Specials

Oil: The floods

We expect significant volatility around our central Brent crude price forecast of USD 41/bbl as an unprecedented inventory build battles with a hope-driven news flow.

Apr 09, 2020 | Specials

Covid-19 to increase U.S. delinquency rate to 6.5% and insolvencies by 25%

High frequency data and the news flow from the U.S. allowed us to have a better sense of the size of the Covid-19 shock, the reaction of public authorities and upcoming ripple effects. In this context, we revise our U.S. GDP growth scenario from +0.5% y/y to -2.7% y/y in 2020.

Apr 03, 2020 | Specials

No stone unturned: How COVID-19 is disrupting every industry

As the Covid-19 pandemic accelerates, hardly any global industry will be spared, according to our analysis. For Q1 2020, we register a record level of 126 sector risk-rating downgrades, the highest since we began monitoring in 2012. All these downgrades come from the direct and indirect impacts of Covid-19 on demand (5 out of 10 downgrades), profitability (4 out of 10) and liquidity (1 out of 10).

Apr 02, 2020 | Specials

Emerging Markets: How to fight COVID-19 without ‘whatever it takes’

Emerging markets have registered record capital outflows over the past few weeks, triggering very strong currency depreciations and liquidity constraints for the weakest. Outflows have markedly accelerated over the past days and currencies have reacted accordingly, especially in commodity-exporting countries and those who implemented generalized lockdowns to fight the Covid-19 pandemic.

Mar 31, 2020 | Specials

Germany: The calm before the labor market storm

In March, the German labor market appeared initially unaffected by the Covid-19 induced economic crisis, with unemployment posting a small decline compared to the previous month. But don’t be fooled by the latest figure, which looks like “the calm before the storm”.

652 releases in total