Private equity in transition: from distribution drought to selective recovery

Private equity is at a critical inflection point. Exit activity rebounded strongly in 2025, with global deal value reaching USD905bn. 

Eurobonds – A window of opportunity for a strategic necessity

Capital flows are shifting to Europe and European debt is emerging as a transitory safe asset.

Country Risk Atlas 2026: Under the surface

In the 2026 edition of the Country Risk Atlas, we assess the economic outlook, risks and opportunities across 83 countries, representing approximately 94% of global GDP. 

From unipolar to uneven: Fragmentation tests US market primacy and reshapes the global investment landscape

US equities have consistently outperformed global peers, cementing their dominance in portfolios worldwide. But past outperformance is becoming less bankable, especially when policy risk, concentration and valuation premia are taken into account. 

High prices, thin buffers: America’s affordability crisis persists

Despite signs of easing in services components, including rentals, US inflation has remained sticky, and low-income households in particular are feeling the pinch. 

Europe’s households after the rate shock: A windfall for some, a squeeze for others

When the European Central Bank began lifting interest rates in July 2022, it set off a quiet redistribution of wealth across the Eurozone’s households. 

Team Italy: An economic performance worthy of a gold medal?

Italy approaches the Olympic Winter Games Milano Cortina 2026 with a notably stronger macroeconomic backdrop, underpinned by post‑pandemic resilience in output, employment and trade, and an improved fiscal stance. 

Five things that could derail the ECB

At its meeting this week, the ECB is set to stay stable in turbulent times. Despite the stormy news flow,  the ECB is in a sweet spot in economic terms, confirming our longer-run outlook of policy rates on hold at 2%, a level the ECB views as broadly neutral.

A new decade high for major insolvencies driven by services, retail and construction

Business insolvencies ended 2025 with an upside trend in most countries, despite already high levels. The first final data available for 2025 confirm our expectations of a +6% increase in global business insolvencies, with Western Europe (+6%) remaining a key contributor to the global trend, several Asian countries posting double-digit rises (five out of nine) and most advanced economies noticeably exceeding pre-pandemic numbers.

From Japan with love: New policy stance creates both market opportunities and liquidity risks

The major sell-off on the long end of the Japanese sovereign yield curve is not a “Truss moment” but signals a bumpy final stage of Japan’s monetary normalization.