As Italy’s next Prime Minister, former ECB President Mario Draghi starts with a double economic burden: weak growth momentum and a vaccination delay that could cost EUR10bn (0.6% of GDP).
Amid surging demand for imports from China, a container shortage and a strengthening RMB are pushing up import prices for European firms: We expect a peak of +6% y/y by end-April 2021 from +3% in November 2020. For the US, the impact should be milder: +2% y/y by July from -1% in November.
The recent shortages of chips used in the automotive industry highlight the growing ubiquity and critical nature of semiconductors, which are the essential components that power the USD3,000bn IT industry.
Turning off the (profit) tap. After a year of low oil prices and low demand that pushed most major oil companies into losses, the hit to profitability will continue in 2021 and 2022.
The race to find a cure for Covid-19 saw an estimated USD25bn spent on pharmaceutical R&D in 2020 alone, with half coming from the US’s "Operation Warp Speed".
After finishing 2020 on a high note with a vaccine light at the end of the tunnel, Europe now faces a moment of truth: a five-week delay on the vaccination front that, if left uncorrected, could cost close to EUR90bn in 2021.
The Asia-Pacific region has fared better than most other regions during the Covid-19 crisis: Economic activity is likely to have declined by less than -2% in 2020, compared to more than -4% at the global level and almost -8% in Latin America.
For the EU, US and China, the Covid-19 recovery is an opportunity to accelerate in the race to dominate energy transition industries and boost sustainable growth and job opportunities.
On 20 January, Joe Biden takes over as the 46th president of the US with the promise of a USD1.9trn stimulus package and a plan to distribute 100 million vaccine doses in his first 100 days.
10th Allianz survey: Business interruption, Pandemic outbreak and Cyber incidents are the top three business risks for 2021 – all strongly interlinked.
