The Covid-19 crisis could accelerate the shifting global balance to-wards Asia. We computed the world’s economic center of gravity (WECG) and found that it has been moving eastwards towards Asia since 2002. By 2030, we forecast the WECG could be located around the confluence of China, India and Pakistan. In comparison, it was located in the Atlantic Ocean until 2007.
The German economy contracted by -5.0% in 2020, suggesting that economic activity held up relatively well in the final quarter of the year despite the second lockdown. But the economic roller coaster ride looks set to continue: The German economy is in for a sharp growth setback in early 2021.
Covid-19 lockdowns changed saving behaviors: Not only did people save more, for the lack of consumption opportunities, they also saved differently, channeling more money into equities and investment funds.
We have a (partial) Brexit deal!As expected, the EU and the UK reached a very last-minute compromise on Brexit, just seven days before the EU exit day. The deal is more advantageous than other FTAs as it offers zero tariffs for goods.
The Covid-19 vaccine will supercharge global growth in 2021, but short-term headwinds, and a complete recovery only by 2022, will create transition risks.
As 2020 draws to a close and we release our updated forecasts , our economists were caught daydreaming of a world where their boldest wishes would come true.
Two recent events have cleared the way for a second wave of spread tightening, leading them closer to their pre-pandemic levels. 1) the resolution of the US presidential elections and 2) the positive news around the vaccines timeline and availability.
The youth labor market is highly sensitive to economic cycles, with young people more likely to be in precarious employment than any other age group. After the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC), it took years to recover across Europe and it could take even longer to recover from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic as it will hinder human capital accumulation, punishing young workers further and widening already present intergenerational inequalities.
After the Covid-19 lockdowns disrupted global supply chains and put the concepts of supply-chain resilience and reshoring on every policymaker’s lips, we decided to check the pulse of companies in the U.S., the UK, France, Germany and Italy.
Recent monetary developments in the EMU are a reminder that it is simplistic and therefore risky to sum up the fuzzy concept of liquidity with QE as if it was the alpha and omega of monetary phenomena.
