All publications

ECB: Another EUR 1.6 trillion in QE to reach the light at the end of the tunnel

Household confidence will play a key role in France's economic recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. But unlike consumption, confidence never recovered to its pre-crisis level even when the first lockdown was lifted. The confidence recovery could only gain traction as of Easter 2021, under the hypothesis of a larger scale vaccination campaign being implemented and continued fiscal support from the government. 

France: Improved confidence to boost consumer spending by EUR10bn in 2021

Household confidence will play a key role in France's economic recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. But unlike consumption, confidence never recovered to its pre-crisis level even when the first lockdown was lifted. The confidence recovery could only gain traction as of Easter 2021, under the hypothesis of a larger scale vaccination campaign being implemented and continued fiscal support from the government. 

French and German savers: The unequal twins

French and German savers have many things in common: Their level of financial assets per capita is similar and its development over the last decade has been almost identical. 

Global sovereign debt market: Not seeing the trees for the forest

Global public debt will hit an all-time high in 2020 and this won’t be without consequences for debt sustainability, particularly for the most fragile economies.

U.S.& Eurozone sectors: Hunting for the weak links

Traded companies have seen remarkable investment inflows even as prolonged Covid-19 lockdowns threaten corporate earnings and debt sustainability. These inflows have led to a substantial re-compression of corporate spreads, leaving most sectors trading close to January 2020 levels. 

Europe: One in four corporates will need more policy support in 2021

The first wave of Covid-19 lockdowns caused a stronger-than-expected profitability shock for most European non-financial corporates in H1 2020, with French and Spanish firms hit particularly hard despite generous policy support. 

Saving Christmas: A EUR18bn challenge for French non-essential retailers

Restrictions on non-essential stores in France ahead of a critical holiday season are casting a shadow over nearly EUR18bn of retail sales normally made at year-end. In a particularly adverse yet realistic scenario where the sanitary situation demands store closures to last until the end of December the financial impact is not to be underestimated.

Financial and risk literacy survey – Resilience in times of Corona

The “Allianz Financial and Risk Literacy Survey”, a representative survey with 1000 respondents in each country was conducted in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, France, Italy, Spain and the US. We asked about experiences with income, consumption, savings and investment, financial literacy and risk during the COVID-19 pandemic.

EU Carbon Border Adjustments and developing country exports: Saving the worst for the last

The introduction of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) will come with a high cost for developing economies, particularly African trade partners and the Arab states of the Persian Gulf, which will face the highest ‘carbon tariffs’. 

RCEP: Common rule of origin could boost regional trade by around USD90bn annually