Allianz Risk Barometer 2022 -
Rank 5: Changes in legislation and regulation

Expert risk article | January 2022
Legislation never sleeps and despite many promises to reduce red tape, new rules and regulations proliferate. 2022 will be no exception, particularly in the areas of big tech and sustainability.
The most important business risks for the next 12 months and beyond, based on the insight of 2,650 risk management experts from 89 countries and territories.

In data and big tech, there is a global race unfolding to curb anti-competitive practices. In Europe, the DMA (Digital Markets Act) will come to life; in the US, a dozen tech bills will make their way through Congress; and in China, the crackdown on big internet companies is already in full swing.

Although it remains to be seen whether these new rules and initiatives will lead to real change, 2022, at least, holds the promise for a fairer and better-regulated data economy, says Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist at Allianz.

Ranking history:

2021: 5 (19%)

2020: 3 (27%)

2019: 4 (27%)

2018: 5 (21%)

2017: 5 (24%)

The same can be said about sustainability. The EU taxonomy for sustainable activities regulation takes effect for the environmental objectives of climate change mitigation and adaptation, providing a common dictionary for sustainability criteria and thus effectively enabling comparability of sustainability performance. “Given Europe’s clout when it comes to regulation, 2022 could, in retrospect, be seen as the year that ended ‘greenwashing’,” says Subran. 

But the elephant in the room is the US-China geopolitical rivalry, contaminating all sorts of economic activity, from trade to technology and investment. And 2022 could easily see further deterioration, with the US heading for mid-term elections and China for an allimportant Communist Party Congress. 

The rising tensions around Taiwan are a harbinger for future conflict. However, the surprising US-China announcement at the COP26 climate summit to boost climate cooperation hints at the opposite: “Are we witnessing an early thaw in the US-China standoff? The Chinese economy will not be in the best shape, the US economy continues to suffer from bouts of inflation: 2022, thus, might be the year of tentative common efforts to build a better, functioning relationship. It would be the most welcome surprise,” says Subran.

Investor and shareholder action is increasingly focused on environmental social and governance (ESG) issues, and companies are challenged by the growing raft of regulation and guidance in many territories, leading to tougher disclosure and reporting rules, according to the Allianz Risk Barometer. Respondents rank cyber security resilience as their major ESG priority (see graphic), driven by the growth and severity of cyber-attacks, and an increase in data security regulations.

“In the past, it was mainly technology companies that were assessed on cyber security resilience, but these days, businesses across a range of sectors are subject to such scrutiny,” explains Michael Bruch, Global Head of Liability Risk Consulting/ESG at AGCS.

“Increasingly, cyber security considerations are incorporated into the ESG risk-analysis frameworks of data providers, who look into companies’ dataprotection and information security practices to evaluate their preparedness for cyber crime.”

Climate change is another major ESG presence on the list with respondents ranking it as their second top ESG concern. This should be no surprise so soon after COP26, the UN Climate Change Conference, when building a decarbonized future rose high on the agenda. Net-zero commitments made by the private sector were unparalleled, reflecting the emphasis businesses now place on climate risk and transitioning to a low-carbon economy.

Within climate change, resource depletion is an emerging risk that will likely receive increasing attention in 2022. The World Economic Forum (WEF)   has identified biodiversity loss as an existential global threat, stating: “$44trn of economic value generation – more than half of the world’s total GDP – is moderately or highly dependent on nature and its services and is therefore exposed to nature loss.” [1] Biodiversity loss can result in natural catastrophes such as droughts and floods, the disappearance of pollinators, or the collapse of fishing or agricultural yields. The construction, agricultural, and food and beverage sectors are most likely to bear the brunt, but the impact on secondary and tertiary industries, and their supply chains, should not be underestimated.

Top four answers

Source: Allianz Risk Barometer 2022
Figures represent the percentage of answers of all participants who responded (2,650). Figures do not add up to 100% as up to three risks could be selected.

“Regulation and global standards around biodiversity are rising,” says Bruch. This year, the Taskforce on Nature-Related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) is expected to launch a framework for organizations to report and act on nature-related risks, while French financial institutions will be required to disclose biodiversity-related risks alongside climate-related risks, as well as their strategies for reducing biodiversity impacts.

If global warming is to be kept below 1.5°C, nature-based solutions will play a significant role, according to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)  and the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) [2]. This will mean protecting ecosystems from loss and degradation, restoring those already degraded, and sustainably managing working lands such as fields and forests.

“As part of their net-zero commitments, companies will not only need to develop and implement strategies to decarbonize, they will also have to manage their impacts on the land and the natural resources they use,” Bruch concludes.

[1] World Economic Forum, 2020: Nature Risk Rising: Why the Crisis Engulfing Nature Matters for Business and the Economy
[2] United Nations Environment Programme and International Union for Conservation of Nature, 2021: Nature-based solutions for climate change mitigation, Nairobi and Gland

Picture: Shutterstock


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