Cyber and AI as major business risks

In 2026, cyber incidents is the top global risk for the fifth year in a row, with its highest-ever score (42% of responses), and by a higher margin than ever before (+10%). It ranks as the main corporate concern in every region (Americas, Asia Pacific, Europe, and Africa and Middle East). The continued presence of cyber risk at the top of the Allianz Risk Barometer reflects a deepening reliance on digital technology at a time when the cyber threat landscape, and geopolitical, and regulatory environments, are fast evolving. 

Large companies’ investments in cyber security and resilience have been paying off, ensuring they can detect and respond to attacks early. However, recent high-profile cyber-attacks underline the continuous threat for businesses of all sizes. Organizations are increasingly reliant on third party providers for critical data and services, while AI is supercharging threats, increasing the attack surface and adding to existing vulnerabilities. Smaller and mid-sized enterprises are increasingly being targeted and are under pressure due to a lack of cyber security resources.

AI has surged into the top tier of global business concerns, rising to #2 (32%) in 2026 from #10 in 2025 – the biggest jump in this year’s ranking. It is a big mover in all regions – ranked #2 in the Americas, Asia Pacific, and Africa and the Middle East, and #3 in Europe – and is a growing risk for companies of all sizes too, moving into the top three for large, mid-sized and smaller firms. As AI adoption accelerates and becomes more deeply embedded in core business operations, respondents expect AI-related risks to intensify, especially when it comes to liability concerns. The rapid spread of generative and agentic AI systems, paired with their growing real-world use, has raised awareness of just how exposed organizations have become.

Many Allianz Risk Barometer respondents increasingly see AI not only as a powerful strategic opportunity but also as a complex source of operational, legal, and reputational risk. In many cases, adoption is moving faster than governance, regulation, and workforce readiness can keep up.  As more firms attempt to scale in 2026, they will face greater exposure to system-reliability issues, data-quality constraints, integration hurdles, and skilled talent shortages. Meanwhile, new liability exposures are emerging around automated decision-making, biased or discriminatory models, intellectual-property misuse, and uncertainty over who is responsible when AI-generated outputs cause harm.

2025 marked a shift towards protectionist trade policies and tariff wars that brought uncertainty to the world economy. It was also a year of regional conflicts in the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine, as well as border disputes between India/Pakistan and Thailand/Cambodia and civil wars in Africa – a trend which continues in 2026 with the US intervention in Venezuela. Geopolitical risks are putting supply chains under increasing pressure, but as risks rise, just 3% of Allianz Risk Barometer respondents view their supply chains as “very resilient”. In the past year alone, trade restrictions have tripled to affect an estimated US$2.7trn of merchandise – nearly 20% of global imports according to Allianz Trade – fueling companies exploring trends such as friendshoring and regionalization. These developments lead to a high-risk perception – 29% of respondents rank business interruption as a top peril, placing it at #3, although it drops a position year-on-year.

Unsurprisingly, political risks and violence climbs two places to #7, its highest-ever ranking. The closely linked risk of changes in legislation and regulation – which includes trade tariffs – ranks #4 globally, unchanged year-on-year but with an increase in respondents, driven by concerns over growing protectionism. In fact, global supply chain paralysis due to a geopolitical conflict ranks as the most plausible “black swan” scenario likely to materialize in the next five years, according to half of all respondents. Meanwhile, respondents also believe divergence will be a defining regulatory risk in 2026, as firms have to operate in a world where major jurisdictions are moving in different directions with regard to digital/AI, prudential, and sustainability rules.

As risk becomes more complex and interconnected, integrated resilience strategies can help to mitigate the impact. Companies now need to have forward-looking approaches to managing risk, including dynamic horizon scanning, scenario modelling and rigorous stress testing. An integrated resilience strategy can also help avoid unintended consequences as companies adapt their operations and supply chains in response to geopolitical risks and sustainability concerns. AI will also have a role to play in helping firms to adapt to the changing risk landscape.

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