Allianz Risk Barometer 2024 -
Rank 2: Business interruption

Business interruption (BI) ranks second in the Allianz Risk Barometer, behind the closely linked peril of cyber. It ranks among the top three risks for companies of all sizes, and is the second biggest concern in the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific and Africa and Middle East regions.

With almost all companies reliant on supply chains for critical products and services, business interruption and supply chain disruption remains at the forefront of risk, explains Marianna Grammatika, a Head of Risk Consulting at Allianz Commercial: “It is the extent of the disruption that becomes the focus point. Some sectors of industry operate with supply chains that have extensive geographic footprints.”

The prominence of BI also reflects the volatile environment that companies currently operate in, according to Alberto Barani, a Business Interruption Group Leader at Allianz Commercial: “We live in a very interconnected world. Despite efforts to improve resilience, the need for efficiency means many companies still run with low levels of stock and just-in-time manufacturing, which results in little margin for errors or disruption.”

Covid-19 and the resulting disruption to supply chains has been a wake-up call for companies. Compared with pre-pandemic times, many companies are now much better prepared for business interruption or supply chain events.

“Before Covid-19, companies were generally reactive to events, but now they are much more aware of critical threats and the need to diversify and protect critical points. Awareness of business interruption and supply chain vulnerabilities makes a business better prepared and able to react in a smarter and more informed manner,” Grammatika says.

According to the Allianz Risk Barometer results, businesses are most likely to develop alternative suppliers (60% of responses) when taking action to de-risk supply chains, followed by improving business continuity management (42%), and identifying and remediating supply chain bottlenecks (37%).

However, smaller companies and those in specialist and high value industries are more limited in what they can do to diversify their supply chains.

“Businesses may still have a number of options to mitigate their exposure. This may include changing the business model, and if this is not viable, there may be options to reconfigure the supply chain – some sectors are heavily concentrated on a small number of suppliers or geography. For others, the cost of increasing redundancy or relocating suppliers is just too great,” says Grammatika.

Cyber incidents and natural catastrophes are the top two causes of BI feared most by companies, followed by fire, and machinery / equipment breakdown or failure (see chart).

However, almost any peril can cause disruption. BI is closely related to many of the other top global risks in this year’s Allianz Risk Barometer, such as climate change (#7), political risks and violence (#8), skills shortages (#10), energy crisis (#11) and the impact of new technologies (#12) to name but a few.

“The global risk landscape is constantly changing, with climate change, digitalization, and geopolitics. Some risks lie dormant, but a significant enough change in geopolitics or events such as extreme weather patterns can very quickly change the predominant risks,” says Grammatika.

The recent disruption in the Red Sea – a vital trade route between Europe and Asia – due to Houthi rebel attacks on vessels is the latest risk to hit supply chains. More than 400 container ships were diverted via the Cape of Good Hope around the southern tip of Africa between mid-December 2023 and the beginning of January, 2024, as a result of the attacks, prolonging journeys and causing delays to the delivery of products.

That said, natural disasters and fire and explosion are notable for their potential to generate large BI losses and supply chain disruption. Severe flooding in Slovenia in August gave rise to one of the biggest supply chain events of 2023 [1], causing production delays and parts shortages for European car manufacturers, while a fire at a major liquefied natural gas facility in the US earlier this  year is likely to result in one of the largest BI losses for the energy sector in recent times [2].

Companies also named BI as their top business concern about climate change impacts in this year’s survey. However, BI related to climate change goes further than just physical damage from storms and floods. Extreme weather or climate events can have a widespread impact, causing economic hardship and political and social upheaval, as well as disrupting logistics and production. For example, a severe drought restricted transits through the Panama shipping canal in the last months of 2023, causing congestion and delays of up to two weeks [3].

Climate change is also having an indirect effect, as decarbonization creates new supply chains.

“Emerging supply chains linked to the energy transition have already been identified as geographically concentrated as they depend on elements which can only be found in a select number of regions in the world,” says Grammatika. “Countries are looking to secure critical supplies of technology and rare earth elements required to power transition technology like electric cars and enable renewable energy sources like solar panels. Political risks have the potential to cause disruption and are harder to mitigate.

“Geopolitical risks are of growing concern for businesses in emerging energy and technology supply chains, as well as high value sectors like technology and artificial intelligence. Producers of rare earth elements are often found in the most underdeveloped and politically volatile areas, as well as being exposed to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risks like modern slavery, human rights, and deforestation.”

In a fast-changing world, companies need to maintain regular audits of systems and to test their business continuity plans.

“There are always organizational changes in companies, and people move. There needs to be systems in place to manage change,” says Grammatika.

“For those that haven’t implemented business continuity management (BCM), they should carry out a business impact analysis and risk assessment in the company at least,” adds Barani. “For those that have already embedded BCM into the business, it is vital they regularly check, update and test these plans, otherwise they won’t be able to react when the crisis starts.”